2012, 25(4): 540-544.
The partial correlation analysis on the relationship between the main meteorological factors and daily emergence amount of Carpomyia vesuviana overwinter generation adult from the beginning to the peak of emergence was conducted. The results of stepwise regression analysis show that the air temperature, the soil temperature and the relative humidity of soil are the main meteorological factors affecting the emergence amount of overwintering emergence. The results of Path analysis and decision-making system analysis show that the air temperature has positive affect on the emergence and is an important index directly impacting on the emergence amount of C. vesuviana; The soil temperature is the most important factor limiting the amount of emergence; the soil relative humidity has the greatest comprehensive influence on the amount of emergence. Based on partial correlation analysis, a multiple regression equation was established on the main meteorological factors and C. vesuviana overwintering generation adult emergence. The emergence amount predicted by the model is significantly correlated with the amount of emergence which was field measured. So this model is applicable for forecasting the amount of C. vesuviana overwintering generation adult.